Thursday, December 9, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
2011 Forecast and SEMICON Japan
It is always a pleasure and honor to be in Japan making one of our key industry announcements, the SEMI Consensus Forecast. This year’s press conference included Tadahiro Suhara, president of Dainippon Screen and president/CEO of Sokudo, and Chairman of the SEMICON Japan Advisory Committee, and Takashi Yoda, Senior Manager of Toshiba’s Process Development Center, and Chairman of the SEMI Technology Symposium. Suhara-san gave an overview of this year’s SEMICON Japan and Yoda-san summarized the program highlights of the Technology Symposium. Also on the podium this year was Hidemi Ishiuchi, Chief Technology Executive at Toshiba and Chairman of the Semiconductor Technology Roadmap Committee of Japan who highlighted the ITRS Public Conference held this year at SEMICON Japan.
It was good to see a healthy a press community in Japan with about 20 journalists in attendance.
We announced the projected forecast for equipment spending in 2011 to reach $38.95 billion and materials spending to pass this year’s all-time high and reach $$44.7 billion. This year SEMI projects 2010 semiconductor equipment sales to reach $37.54 billion, up 136% following a 46 percent market decline in 2009.
Wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is expected to increase 137 percent in 2010 to $28.11 billion. The forecast predicts that the market for assembly and packaging equipment will grow by 155 percent to $3.59 billion in 2010. The market for semiconductor test equipment is also forecasted to grow by 155 percent to reach $3.96 billion this year.
Growth is forecasted for all regions in 2010, with Taiwan being the largest market for equipment followed by South Korea. North America will be the third largest market for overall spending on semiconductor equipment. China, Korea, Rest of World, Europe, and Taiwan regions will experience growth rates over 100 percent.
I think the Consensus Forecast is especially well-timed this year. While the leading analysts project chip revenue to grow between 4.5 (Gartner) and 11% (IC Insights) in 2011, there’s been varying opinions about what the industry could sustain in capital spending after this year’s crazy growth. The latest Book-to-Bill numbers fell below one for the first time in 2 years and there has been lingering general economic malaise in the US and Western Europe that has caused some speculation on the negative side. The projected 4% equipment spending growth for next year seems modest after last year’s impressive gain, but includes a decline in spending for test and assembly equipment that really spiked in 2010. We project that wafer processing equipment will actually grow 7.4% to over $30 billion.
One of the most interesting developments in the global IC industry—of most concern here in Tokyo—has been relative decline in Japanese equipment spending. Not only will Taiwan and Korea spend significantly more than Japan on equipment (9.0 and 8.28 billion to 4.9 billion respectively), but the US will also spend over $1 billion more than Japan next year.
It was good to see a healthy a press community in Japan with about 20 journalists in attendance.
We announced the projected forecast for equipment spending in 2011 to reach $38.95 billion and materials spending to pass this year’s all-time high and reach $$44.7 billion. This year SEMI projects 2010 semiconductor equipment sales to reach $37.54 billion, up 136% following a 46 percent market decline in 2009.
Wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is expected to increase 137 percent in 2010 to $28.11 billion. The forecast predicts that the market for assembly and packaging equipment will grow by 155 percent to $3.59 billion in 2010. The market for semiconductor test equipment is also forecasted to grow by 155 percent to reach $3.96 billion this year.
Growth is forecasted for all regions in 2010, with Taiwan being the largest market for equipment followed by South Korea. North America will be the third largest market for overall spending on semiconductor equipment. China, Korea, Rest of World, Europe, and Taiwan regions will experience growth rates over 100 percent.
I think the Consensus Forecast is especially well-timed this year. While the leading analysts project chip revenue to grow between 4.5 (Gartner) and 11% (IC Insights) in 2011, there’s been varying opinions about what the industry could sustain in capital spending after this year’s crazy growth. The latest Book-to-Bill numbers fell below one for the first time in 2 years and there has been lingering general economic malaise in the US and Western Europe that has caused some speculation on the negative side. The projected 4% equipment spending growth for next year seems modest after last year’s impressive gain, but includes a decline in spending for test and assembly equipment that really spiked in 2010. We project that wafer processing equipment will actually grow 7.4% to over $30 billion.
One of the most interesting developments in the global IC industry—of most concern here in Tokyo—has been relative decline in Japanese equipment spending. Not only will Taiwan and Korea spend significantly more than Japan on equipment (9.0 and 8.28 billion to 4.9 billion respectively), but the US will also spend over $1 billion more than Japan next year.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
LED Market Cooling Off?
So, is the white hot LED market about to cool off?
According to DigiTimes, LED chipmakers including Epistar, Formosa Epitaxy and Tekcore expect revenues in September to continue to drop amid dropping demand for TV backlighting, and gross margins for the third quarter of 2010 are expected to drop 4-5 percentage points due to increases in component prices, as well as shortages of such components as sapphire substrates and special gases.
In August, IMS Research estimated that over 300 MOCVD systems were installed in Q2'10 to serve the rapidly growing high brightness (HB) LED market. This segment is benefitting from rapid gains in penetration into the notebook PC, LCD monitor, LCD TV and general lighting markets as well as a healthy subsidy in China. IMS also estimated that LED capacity will need to rise by 352% from 2009 to 2014 to keep up with demand, driving tool shipments throughout the HB LED supply chain.
According to IMS Research SVP Ross Young, "MOCVD is the single hottest category in the semiconductor manufacturing space with shipments expected to rise by nearly 500% in 2010 and to keep growing through 2013. With TVs, monitors and general lighting still early in the adoption cycle and the Chinese government encouraging a healthy LED infrastructure with a generous $1.5M subsidy per tool, this segment should remain hot.
Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan also see the MOCVD market growing through 2011. Canaccord Genuity predicts tool orders to peak in 1H’11.
Part of the reason for the near-term optimism in LED and MOCVD growth was the projected healthy demand from LED TVs. According to DisplaySearch, LCD TV panel makers are targeting aggressive growth for LED panel shipments, with plans to reach 40 percent LED penetration in Q4’10, and to exceed 50 percent in Q2’11. They estimated that Q2’10 vendors have shipped 9.5 million, or 18.5 percent, of the LCD TV panels with LED backlights, which was 110 percent growth quarter-to-quarter.
So what’s with the disappointing LED sales from Taiwan? Accorording to DigiTimes, Epistar indicated that decling September revenues were due to weakening demand for TV backlighting and general lighting, but the company expects revenues to start picking up in October as capacity adjustments for different applications have been completed and production is getting back on track.
Tekcore also believes that its September revenues will drop, while market observers expect the company's revenues to drop by 10-20% sequentially to about NT$200-220 million in September and revenues for the third quarter to increase by 10-12% sequentially to NT$700 million. Furthermore, component supply in the fourth quarter is expected to improve, helping to boost shipments.
Formosa Epitaxy expects its September revenues to drop 10% mainly due to low TV backlighting demand and tight component supply. Although TV backlighting demand may increase due to vendors' launch of new models in the fourth quarter, the small- to medium-size segment will enter the low season.
As the LED market scales to meet higher demand, predicting the point where overcapacity will cause a decline in capital spending and MOCVD tool orders will become an important planning issue for the industry. With over 80 manufacturers of epi wafers, serving increasingly diverse and dynamic markets, capital spending and pricing trends could be volatile for the next few years.
According to DigiTimes, LED chipmakers including Epistar, Formosa Epitaxy and Tekcore expect revenues in September to continue to drop amid dropping demand for TV backlighting, and gross margins for the third quarter of 2010 are expected to drop 4-5 percentage points due to increases in component prices, as well as shortages of such components as sapphire substrates and special gases.
In August, IMS Research estimated that over 300 MOCVD systems were installed in Q2'10 to serve the rapidly growing high brightness (HB) LED market. This segment is benefitting from rapid gains in penetration into the notebook PC, LCD monitor, LCD TV and general lighting markets as well as a healthy subsidy in China. IMS also estimated that LED capacity will need to rise by 352% from 2009 to 2014 to keep up with demand, driving tool shipments throughout the HB LED supply chain.
According to IMS Research SVP Ross Young, "MOCVD is the single hottest category in the semiconductor manufacturing space with shipments expected to rise by nearly 500% in 2010 and to keep growing through 2013. With TVs, monitors and general lighting still early in the adoption cycle and the Chinese government encouraging a healthy LED infrastructure with a generous $1.5M subsidy per tool, this segment should remain hot.
Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan also see the MOCVD market growing through 2011. Canaccord Genuity predicts tool orders to peak in 1H’11.
Part of the reason for the near-term optimism in LED and MOCVD growth was the projected healthy demand from LED TVs. According to DisplaySearch, LCD TV panel makers are targeting aggressive growth for LED panel shipments, with plans to reach 40 percent LED penetration in Q4’10, and to exceed 50 percent in Q2’11. They estimated that Q2’10 vendors have shipped 9.5 million, or 18.5 percent, of the LCD TV panels with LED backlights, which was 110 percent growth quarter-to-quarter.
So what’s with the disappointing LED sales from Taiwan? Accorording to DigiTimes, Epistar indicated that decling September revenues were due to weakening demand for TV backlighting and general lighting, but the company expects revenues to start picking up in October as capacity adjustments for different applications have been completed and production is getting back on track.
Tekcore also believes that its September revenues will drop, while market observers expect the company's revenues to drop by 10-20% sequentially to about NT$200-220 million in September and revenues for the third quarter to increase by 10-12% sequentially to NT$700 million. Furthermore, component supply in the fourth quarter is expected to improve, helping to boost shipments.
Formosa Epitaxy expects its September revenues to drop 10% mainly due to low TV backlighting demand and tight component supply. Although TV backlighting demand may increase due to vendors' launch of new models in the fourth quarter, the small- to medium-size segment will enter the low season.
As the LED market scales to meet higher demand, predicting the point where overcapacity will cause a decline in capital spending and MOCVD tool orders will become an important planning issue for the industry. With over 80 manufacturers of epi wafers, serving increasingly diverse and dynamic markets, capital spending and pricing trends could be volatile for the next few years.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
24 Companies Planning Tablets
TownHall Investment Research (www.townhallresearch.com) report that 24 tablets are expected to become available between now and Q1′11. Included in the list are:
-Two 7-inch tablets from Acer (one using Windows 7 and the other using Android 3)
-Two 9-inch tablets from HP: the Windows 7-based Slate 500 scheduled for Q4 and the WebOS-based PalmPad scheduled for Q1′11.
-Nokia’s 7-inch and 9-inch Meego-based tablets are due in Q4
-Samsung’s Android-based Galaxy Tablet is scheduled for a September 10th release. --Verizon's Android-based, 10.1-inch Zpad for Q4 release at a price of $199
-Augen’s 7-inch Gentouch 78 appeared in some Kmart stores and flew off the shelves at $150.
-Notion Ink Adam, one version of which may have a Pixel Qi display, is scheduled for November 10
-Cisco’s Cius not expected until Q1′11.
-There are insistent reports that Apple will have a 7-inch iPad model out at about that time.
Also on the TownHall list are Archos, Asus, Dell’s Streak (with only a 5-inch display), HTC (with a Google Chrome OS and a "greater than 7-inch" display), Lenovo, LG, RIM, Toshiba, ViewSonic, and Olive.
All, or nearly all, of these tablets have (or will have) LCD panels. One intriguing possible exception, as we have said before in the context of eBook readers, is the Qualcomm MEMS Technologies (QMT) reflective color mirasol display with video-compatible response time.
Townhall research believes that tablet PC sales will grow more rapidly than smart phone sales and will probably constitute a larger market within five years.
-Two 7-inch tablets from Acer (one using Windows 7 and the other using Android 3)
-Two 9-inch tablets from HP: the Windows 7-based Slate 500 scheduled for Q4 and the WebOS-based PalmPad scheduled for Q1′11.
-Nokia’s 7-inch and 9-inch Meego-based tablets are due in Q4
-Samsung’s Android-based Galaxy Tablet is scheduled for a September 10th release. --Verizon's Android-based, 10.1-inch Zpad for Q4 release at a price of $199
-Augen’s 7-inch Gentouch 78 appeared in some Kmart stores and flew off the shelves at $150.
-Notion Ink Adam, one version of which may have a Pixel Qi display, is scheduled for November 10
-Cisco’s Cius not expected until Q1′11.
-There are insistent reports that Apple will have a 7-inch iPad model out at about that time.
Also on the TownHall list are Archos, Asus, Dell’s Streak (with only a 5-inch display), HTC (with a Google Chrome OS and a "greater than 7-inch" display), Lenovo, LG, RIM, Toshiba, ViewSonic, and Olive.
All, or nearly all, of these tablets have (or will have) LCD panels. One intriguing possible exception, as we have said before in the context of eBook readers, is the Qualcomm MEMS Technologies (QMT) reflective color mirasol display with video-compatible response time.
Townhall research believes that tablet PC sales will grow more rapidly than smart phone sales and will probably constitute a larger market within five years.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Friday, July 2, 2010
Quantum Dots at SEMICON West
LED and solar technologies have been making huge inroads into commercial applications over the past decade. Primarily these inroads have occurred through a slow, steady improvement in cost per watt and cost per lumen through continuous improvement of traditional semiconductor-based processes. These improvements are expected to progress at steady rates and probably be the dominant contributor to these markets over the coming decade. Yet with billions of dollars in VC and government funding over the past few years, I suspect there will be breakthrough developments on the horizon that will be a game-changer for both PV and solid state lighting.
One potential game changer is quantum dots.
Quantum dots, also known as nanocrystals, are a special class of semiconductor materials whose electrical conductivity can be greatly altered via an external stimulus (voltage, photon flux, etc). Quantum dots are unique because they are so small, ranging from 2-10 nanometers (10-50 atoms) in diameter. At these sizes materials behave differently, giving quantum dots unprecedented characteristics, enabling never before seen applications to science and technology.
Quantum dots semiconductor nanocrystals have been considered in a broad range of applications, from biological tagging to LEDs, laser diodes, and solar cells.
Quantum dots have been used on silicon substrates with a coating of nanocrystals. Recent research in experimenting with lead selenide (PbSe) semiconductor, as well as with cadmium telluride (CdTe) have been announced in quantum dots. Other materials are being researched as well
In solid state lighting and displays, a few years ago QD Vision announced technical success in making a proof-of-concept quantum dot display and demonstrated a bright emission in the visible and near infra-red region of the spectrum. Since that time they have making significant progress in developing commercial applications in solid state lighting.
During SEMICON West, Seth Coe-Sullivan, Ph.D, CTO and Co-Founder of QD Vision will give an update on their technology and how their Quantum Light platform is being applied to deliver step-change improvements in power efficiency and color quality in commercial lighting. The first products incorporating Quantum Light technology are LED lamps and fixtures that deliver savings in energy of up to 80%, excellent color quality, and lifetimes in excess of 50,000 hours.
An update on the important developments at QD Vision will be one of the highlights of “LED Day” at SEMICON West. I hope you can be there.
One potential game changer is quantum dots.
Quantum dots, also known as nanocrystals, are a special class of semiconductor materials whose electrical conductivity can be greatly altered via an external stimulus (voltage, photon flux, etc). Quantum dots are unique because they are so small, ranging from 2-10 nanometers (10-50 atoms) in diameter. At these sizes materials behave differently, giving quantum dots unprecedented characteristics, enabling never before seen applications to science and technology.
Quantum dots semiconductor nanocrystals have been considered in a broad range of applications, from biological tagging to LEDs, laser diodes, and solar cells.
Quantum dots have been used on silicon substrates with a coating of nanocrystals. Recent research in experimenting with lead selenide (PbSe) semiconductor, as well as with cadmium telluride (CdTe) have been announced in quantum dots. Other materials are being researched as well
In solid state lighting and displays, a few years ago QD Vision announced technical success in making a proof-of-concept quantum dot display and demonstrated a bright emission in the visible and near infra-red region of the spectrum. Since that time they have making significant progress in developing commercial applications in solid state lighting.
During SEMICON West, Seth Coe-Sullivan, Ph.D, CTO and Co-Founder of QD Vision will give an update on their technology and how their Quantum Light platform is being applied to deliver step-change improvements in power efficiency and color quality in commercial lighting. The first products incorporating Quantum Light technology are LED lamps and fixtures that deliver savings in energy of up to 80%, excellent color quality, and lifetimes in excess of 50,000 hours.
An update on the important developments at QD Vision will be one of the highlights of “LED Day” at SEMICON West. I hope you can be there.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
LED Manufacturing at SEMICON West
Both front-end and back-end manufacturing trends, challenges and issues will be discussed at SEMICON West, in the Extreme Electronics stage on Tuesday, July 13 from 10:30 through the day. Get their early because its over booked and there are only 150 seats.
Other LED events in the US don't really address manufacturing so this is an important gathering for the industry.
In the front-end session, Applied Materials are going to show thier new MOCVD tool that may be the biggest development in the sector in a few years. Applied's late to the boom, but they've the know-how and an unique integrated solution that will demand serious consideration.
I also recommend the Ultratech presentation on the interesting challenges in HB LED litho process.
The afternoon session features Philips Lumenleds, but I'm looking forward to QD Vision's talk on Quantum Dot technology. Jan Vardemann and Dan Morrow (no relation) are good friends and I won't miss thier presentations as well.
In addition to the Extreme Stage, we also have Standards Meetings and other LED events.
Other LED events in the US don't really address manufacturing so this is an important gathering for the industry.
In the front-end session, Applied Materials are going to show thier new MOCVD tool that may be the biggest development in the sector in a few years. Applied's late to the boom, but they've the know-how and an unique integrated solution that will demand serious consideration.
I also recommend the Ultratech presentation on the interesting challenges in HB LED litho process.
The afternoon session features Philips Lumenleds, but I'm looking forward to QD Vision's talk on Quantum Dot technology. Jan Vardemann and Dan Morrow (no relation) are good friends and I won't miss thier presentations as well.
In addition to the Extreme Stage, we also have Standards Meetings and other LED events.
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