So, is the white hot LED market about to cool off?
According to DigiTimes, LED chipmakers including Epistar, Formosa Epitaxy and Tekcore expect revenues in September to continue to drop amid dropping demand for TV backlighting, and gross margins for the third quarter of 2010 are expected to drop 4-5 percentage points due to increases in component prices, as well as shortages of such components as sapphire substrates and special gases.
In August, IMS Research estimated that over 300 MOCVD systems were installed in Q2'10 to serve the rapidly growing high brightness (HB) LED market. This segment is benefitting from rapid gains in penetration into the notebook PC, LCD monitor, LCD TV and general lighting markets as well as a healthy subsidy in China. IMS also estimated that LED capacity will need to rise by 352% from 2009 to 2014 to keep up with demand, driving tool shipments throughout the HB LED supply chain.
According to IMS Research SVP Ross Young, "MOCVD is the single hottest category in the semiconductor manufacturing space with shipments expected to rise by nearly 500% in 2010 and to keep growing through 2013. With TVs, monitors and general lighting still early in the adoption cycle and the Chinese government encouraging a healthy LED infrastructure with a generous $1.5M subsidy per tool, this segment should remain hot.
Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan also see the MOCVD market growing through 2011. Canaccord Genuity predicts tool orders to peak in 1H’11.
Part of the reason for the near-term optimism in LED and MOCVD growth was the projected healthy demand from LED TVs. According to DisplaySearch, LCD TV panel makers are targeting aggressive growth for LED panel shipments, with plans to reach 40 percent LED penetration in Q4’10, and to exceed 50 percent in Q2’11. They estimated that Q2’10 vendors have shipped 9.5 million, or 18.5 percent, of the LCD TV panels with LED backlights, which was 110 percent growth quarter-to-quarter.
So what’s with the disappointing LED sales from Taiwan? Accorording to DigiTimes, Epistar indicated that decling September revenues were due to weakening demand for TV backlighting and general lighting, but the company expects revenues to start picking up in October as capacity adjustments for different applications have been completed and production is getting back on track.
Tekcore also believes that its September revenues will drop, while market observers expect the company's revenues to drop by 10-20% sequentially to about NT$200-220 million in September and revenues for the third quarter to increase by 10-12% sequentially to NT$700 million. Furthermore, component supply in the fourth quarter is expected to improve, helping to boost shipments.
Formosa Epitaxy expects its September revenues to drop 10% mainly due to low TV backlighting demand and tight component supply. Although TV backlighting demand may increase due to vendors' launch of new models in the fourth quarter, the small- to medium-size segment will enter the low season.
As the LED market scales to meet higher demand, predicting the point where overcapacity will cause a decline in capital spending and MOCVD tool orders will become an important planning issue for the industry. With over 80 manufacturers of epi wafers, serving increasingly diverse and dynamic markets, capital spending and pricing trends could be volatile for the next few years.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
24 Companies Planning Tablets
TownHall Investment Research (www.townhallresearch.com) report that 24 tablets are expected to become available between now and Q1′11. Included in the list are:
-Two 7-inch tablets from Acer (one using Windows 7 and the other using Android 3)
-Two 9-inch tablets from HP: the Windows 7-based Slate 500 scheduled for Q4 and the WebOS-based PalmPad scheduled for Q1′11.
-Nokia’s 7-inch and 9-inch Meego-based tablets are due in Q4
-Samsung’s Android-based Galaxy Tablet is scheduled for a September 10th release. --Verizon's Android-based, 10.1-inch Zpad for Q4 release at a price of $199
-Augen’s 7-inch Gentouch 78 appeared in some Kmart stores and flew off the shelves at $150.
-Notion Ink Adam, one version of which may have a Pixel Qi display, is scheduled for November 10
-Cisco’s Cius not expected until Q1′11.
-There are insistent reports that Apple will have a 7-inch iPad model out at about that time.
Also on the TownHall list are Archos, Asus, Dell’s Streak (with only a 5-inch display), HTC (with a Google Chrome OS and a "greater than 7-inch" display), Lenovo, LG, RIM, Toshiba, ViewSonic, and Olive.
All, or nearly all, of these tablets have (or will have) LCD panels. One intriguing possible exception, as we have said before in the context of eBook readers, is the Qualcomm MEMS Technologies (QMT) reflective color mirasol display with video-compatible response time.
Townhall research believes that tablet PC sales will grow more rapidly than smart phone sales and will probably constitute a larger market within five years.
-Two 7-inch tablets from Acer (one using Windows 7 and the other using Android 3)
-Two 9-inch tablets from HP: the Windows 7-based Slate 500 scheduled for Q4 and the WebOS-based PalmPad scheduled for Q1′11.
-Nokia’s 7-inch and 9-inch Meego-based tablets are due in Q4
-Samsung’s Android-based Galaxy Tablet is scheduled for a September 10th release. --Verizon's Android-based, 10.1-inch Zpad for Q4 release at a price of $199
-Augen’s 7-inch Gentouch 78 appeared in some Kmart stores and flew off the shelves at $150.
-Notion Ink Adam, one version of which may have a Pixel Qi display, is scheduled for November 10
-Cisco’s Cius not expected until Q1′11.
-There are insistent reports that Apple will have a 7-inch iPad model out at about that time.
Also on the TownHall list are Archos, Asus, Dell’s Streak (with only a 5-inch display), HTC (with a Google Chrome OS and a "greater than 7-inch" display), Lenovo, LG, RIM, Toshiba, ViewSonic, and Olive.
All, or nearly all, of these tablets have (or will have) LCD panels. One intriguing possible exception, as we have said before in the context of eBook readers, is the Qualcomm MEMS Technologies (QMT) reflective color mirasol display with video-compatible response time.
Townhall research believes that tablet PC sales will grow more rapidly than smart phone sales and will probably constitute a larger market within five years.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Friday, July 2, 2010
Quantum Dots at SEMICON West
LED and solar technologies have been making huge inroads into commercial applications over the past decade. Primarily these inroads have occurred through a slow, steady improvement in cost per watt and cost per lumen through continuous improvement of traditional semiconductor-based processes. These improvements are expected to progress at steady rates and probably be the dominant contributor to these markets over the coming decade. Yet with billions of dollars in VC and government funding over the past few years, I suspect there will be breakthrough developments on the horizon that will be a game-changer for both PV and solid state lighting.
One potential game changer is quantum dots.
Quantum dots, also known as nanocrystals, are a special class of semiconductor materials whose electrical conductivity can be greatly altered via an external stimulus (voltage, photon flux, etc). Quantum dots are unique because they are so small, ranging from 2-10 nanometers (10-50 atoms) in diameter. At these sizes materials behave differently, giving quantum dots unprecedented characteristics, enabling never before seen applications to science and technology.
Quantum dots semiconductor nanocrystals have been considered in a broad range of applications, from biological tagging to LEDs, laser diodes, and solar cells.
Quantum dots have been used on silicon substrates with a coating of nanocrystals. Recent research in experimenting with lead selenide (PbSe) semiconductor, as well as with cadmium telluride (CdTe) have been announced in quantum dots. Other materials are being researched as well
In solid state lighting and displays, a few years ago QD Vision announced technical success in making a proof-of-concept quantum dot display and demonstrated a bright emission in the visible and near infra-red region of the spectrum. Since that time they have making significant progress in developing commercial applications in solid state lighting.
During SEMICON West, Seth Coe-Sullivan, Ph.D, CTO and Co-Founder of QD Vision will give an update on their technology and how their Quantum Light platform is being applied to deliver step-change improvements in power efficiency and color quality in commercial lighting. The first products incorporating Quantum Light technology are LED lamps and fixtures that deliver savings in energy of up to 80%, excellent color quality, and lifetimes in excess of 50,000 hours.
An update on the important developments at QD Vision will be one of the highlights of “LED Day” at SEMICON West. I hope you can be there.
One potential game changer is quantum dots.
Quantum dots, also known as nanocrystals, are a special class of semiconductor materials whose electrical conductivity can be greatly altered via an external stimulus (voltage, photon flux, etc). Quantum dots are unique because they are so small, ranging from 2-10 nanometers (10-50 atoms) in diameter. At these sizes materials behave differently, giving quantum dots unprecedented characteristics, enabling never before seen applications to science and technology.
Quantum dots semiconductor nanocrystals have been considered in a broad range of applications, from biological tagging to LEDs, laser diodes, and solar cells.
Quantum dots have been used on silicon substrates with a coating of nanocrystals. Recent research in experimenting with lead selenide (PbSe) semiconductor, as well as with cadmium telluride (CdTe) have been announced in quantum dots. Other materials are being researched as well
In solid state lighting and displays, a few years ago QD Vision announced technical success in making a proof-of-concept quantum dot display and demonstrated a bright emission in the visible and near infra-red region of the spectrum. Since that time they have making significant progress in developing commercial applications in solid state lighting.
During SEMICON West, Seth Coe-Sullivan, Ph.D, CTO and Co-Founder of QD Vision will give an update on their technology and how their Quantum Light platform is being applied to deliver step-change improvements in power efficiency and color quality in commercial lighting. The first products incorporating Quantum Light technology are LED lamps and fixtures that deliver savings in energy of up to 80%, excellent color quality, and lifetimes in excess of 50,000 hours.
An update on the important developments at QD Vision will be one of the highlights of “LED Day” at SEMICON West. I hope you can be there.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
LED Manufacturing at SEMICON West
Both front-end and back-end manufacturing trends, challenges and issues will be discussed at SEMICON West, in the Extreme Electronics stage on Tuesday, July 13 from 10:30 through the day. Get their early because its over booked and there are only 150 seats.
Other LED events in the US don't really address manufacturing so this is an important gathering for the industry.
In the front-end session, Applied Materials are going to show thier new MOCVD tool that may be the biggest development in the sector in a few years. Applied's late to the boom, but they've the know-how and an unique integrated solution that will demand serious consideration.
I also recommend the Ultratech presentation on the interesting challenges in HB LED litho process.
The afternoon session features Philips Lumenleds, but I'm looking forward to QD Vision's talk on Quantum Dot technology. Jan Vardemann and Dan Morrow (no relation) are good friends and I won't miss thier presentations as well.
In addition to the Extreme Stage, we also have Standards Meetings and other LED events.
Other LED events in the US don't really address manufacturing so this is an important gathering for the industry.
In the front-end session, Applied Materials are going to show thier new MOCVD tool that may be the biggest development in the sector in a few years. Applied's late to the boom, but they've the know-how and an unique integrated solution that will demand serious consideration.
I also recommend the Ultratech presentation on the interesting challenges in HB LED litho process.
The afternoon session features Philips Lumenleds, but I'm looking forward to QD Vision's talk on Quantum Dot technology. Jan Vardemann and Dan Morrow (no relation) are good friends and I won't miss thier presentations as well.
In addition to the Extreme Stage, we also have Standards Meetings and other LED events.
Monday, June 14, 2010
The Center of Gravity is Changing--PricewaterhouseCoopers
“The center of gravity is changing. The only question is how fast…”
This was the theme of the presentation given to the SEMI Sales and Marketing Council (SSMC) at last Tuesday’s lunch meeting by Raman Chitkara, Sr. Partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers, the world’s largest professional services firm.
As part of our regular monthly networking lunch, SSMC often has outside speakers join the group to share their perspective on important industry issues. This month we were extremely fortunate to welcome Raman Chitkara who has had a ring side seat in the key developments in Silicon Valley, and an insider’s knowledge of many of the leading companies in the semiconductor industry. He’s also leading expert on CleanTech, having been a principal leader in PwC’s informative “CleanTech Comes of Age" report. Raman is also one PwC's experts on China as leader of the "China's Impact on the Global Semiconductor Industry" report.
The center of gravity that Raman refers to is geographic. The move of high tech industries to Asia has been relentless. “As US companies extend globally, they spawn indigenous technology companies,” said Raman. Of the 29 firms that went IPO in the Q1 of this year, 1 was on Germany’s exchange, 3 on NASDAQ, and 24 were in China. The China firms raised over $2.5 billion.
The growing importance of emerging markets is part of this shift in gravity, not just in production, but consumption as well. The growing middle class in BRIC countries is driving world chip demand. Even during the recent semiconductor downturn, electronic systems manufacturers in China continued to increase their consumption of semiconductors at a rate three to five times the worldwide rate. As a result, China is remains the largest consumer of semiconductors for the fourth year in a row. In the past, much of this consumption was from US, Japanese and other global OEMs, now it is increasingly dominated by China electronic manufacturing firms with local sourcing authority. Raman sees China chip manufacturing sector to continue to grow, especially if the success of other international fab ventures continues.
The other major shift in the IC industry discussed by Raman was consumerization—not just in total chip consumption—but the fact that new technologies now appear first in consumer markets, not in business IT. Among the impacts this brings is the decline in vertical integration. “How can you sustain competitive advantage when everyone can get the same chips?” Apple is focusing on software differentiation with emphasis on only a few key components.
Raman sees a convergence of software and hardware services—complete solutions that allow companies to achieve dominant market shares. But he admits, “the rules are still being written…”
Another important impact on SEMI members will be he transition from US GAAP to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). China will make the change to IFRS in 2011, well before the US in 2013. Among this IFRS impact will be on leasing and capital equipment purchasing.
This was the theme of the presentation given to the SEMI Sales and Marketing Council (SSMC) at last Tuesday’s lunch meeting by Raman Chitkara, Sr. Partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers, the world’s largest professional services firm.
As part of our regular monthly networking lunch, SSMC often has outside speakers join the group to share their perspective on important industry issues. This month we were extremely fortunate to welcome Raman Chitkara who has had a ring side seat in the key developments in Silicon Valley, and an insider’s knowledge of many of the leading companies in the semiconductor industry. He’s also leading expert on CleanTech, having been a principal leader in PwC’s informative “CleanTech Comes of Age" report. Raman is also one PwC's experts on China as leader of the "China's Impact on the Global Semiconductor Industry" report.
The center of gravity that Raman refers to is geographic. The move of high tech industries to Asia has been relentless. “As US companies extend globally, they spawn indigenous technology companies,” said Raman. Of the 29 firms that went IPO in the Q1 of this year, 1 was on Germany’s exchange, 3 on NASDAQ, and 24 were in China. The China firms raised over $2.5 billion.
The growing importance of emerging markets is part of this shift in gravity, not just in production, but consumption as well. The growing middle class in BRIC countries is driving world chip demand. Even during the recent semiconductor downturn, electronic systems manufacturers in China continued to increase their consumption of semiconductors at a rate three to five times the worldwide rate. As a result, China is remains the largest consumer of semiconductors for the fourth year in a row. In the past, much of this consumption was from US, Japanese and other global OEMs, now it is increasingly dominated by China electronic manufacturing firms with local sourcing authority. Raman sees China chip manufacturing sector to continue to grow, especially if the success of other international fab ventures continues.
The other major shift in the IC industry discussed by Raman was consumerization—not just in total chip consumption—but the fact that new technologies now appear first in consumer markets, not in business IT. Among the impacts this brings is the decline in vertical integration. “How can you sustain competitive advantage when everyone can get the same chips?” Apple is focusing on software differentiation with emphasis on only a few key components.
Raman sees a convergence of software and hardware services—complete solutions that allow companies to achieve dominant market shares. But he admits, “the rules are still being written…”
Another important impact on SEMI members will be he transition from US GAAP to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). China will make the change to IFRS in 2011, well before the US in 2013. Among this IFRS impact will be on leasing and capital equipment purchasing.
Monday, June 7, 2010
MEMS Market Remains Fragmented
Jean Christophe Eloy, CEO of Yole Developpment, told a packed audience at the MEMS Forum at SEMICON Singapore that the MEMS market remains fragmented, but developments in foundries and new startups could accelerate the scale of the industry.
Very few applications have a market size above $200M and long development cycles have impeded the development of a strong ecosystem. Manufacturing is still based on the “one product, one process, one package” principal that constrains the growth of fabless companies and foundries. But standard process blocks are recognized as a key driver and several foundries seem to be optimistic about resolving the barriers to commercialization and scale.
According to Eloy, all the important successes in the MEMS industry in the past 5 years are linked to innovation in usage and packaging:
•The success of ST with accelerometers is linked to usage
•The success of Invensense is linked to packaging innovation
•The success of the silicon microphone is due to packaging innovation
•The success of pico projectors is a combination both new usage and new packaging
Most of the new MEMS developments are happening with startups. Yole has identified 30 startups in exciting new areas such as microbolometers, digital compasses and oscillators.
Check out the announced MEMS programs SEMICON West (luly 13) and SEMICON Europa (October 18-19).
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